The private technology investment market is rarely dull, but right now it is experiencing something particularly dramatic. Three companies Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX are dominating the conversation among secondary market investors, and the dynamics between them are shifting fast.
Anthropic: The Hottest Stock No One Can Buy
Demand for Anthropic's shares in the secondary market has become almost insatiable, with buyers signaling they have $2 billion in cash ready to deploy into the company, even as roughly $600 million in OpenAI shares that investors are trying to sell have failed to find takers.
Glen Anderson, president of investment bank Rainmaker Securities which facilitates transactions in roughly 1,000 private stocks described Anthropic as the hardest stock to source in their marketplace. "There's just no sellers," he told TechCrunch.
What sparked this surge? Anderson argues that Anthropic's very public standoff with the Department of Defense a situation that initially seemed damaging ultimately became a gift. The app grew more popular, and people rallied around the company as a kind of hero standing up to big government, which amplified Anthropic's story and made it more differentiated from OpenAI.
OpenAI: Still Standing, But Losing Momentum
OpenAI is far from finished, but the excitement in the secondary market has visibly cooled. Anderson pushed back on a binary reading of the situation, saying it's not a one-or-the-other conversation but acknowledged that the market for OpenAI shares is "not nearly as vibrant" as for Anthropic right now.
On valuation, OpenAI shares on the secondary market are trading as if the company were valued at around $765 billion a notable discount to its newest $852 billion primary-round valuation.
OpenAI has tried to assert more control over secondary trading, warning that people should be extremely cautious of any firm claiming to have access to OpenAI equity, including through special purpose vehicles. The company established authorized channels through banks, with no fees, to counter what it described as a high-fee broker model.
SpaceX: The Steady Giant About to Go Public
While Anthropic and OpenAI battle for investor attention, SpaceX occupies an entirely different tier. Anderson describes it as one of the only names in Rainmaker's universe that never experienced the punishing correction that hit much of the private market between 2022 and 2024, when many private companies' shares fell 60% to 70% from their peaks.
The secret to SpaceX's resilience? Disciplined pricing. Anderson credits SpaceX's management with not squeezing every last dollar out of each funding round or tender offer, noting that many companies fall for the temptation to maximize their stock price in every round which leaves no room for error. SpaceX, by contrast, played it conservatively.
The payoff has been staggering. SpaceX was valued at roughly $12 billion in 2015 when Google and Fidelity jointly invested $1 billion in the company. Someone who got in at that price is now sitting on a gain of more than 100x, with the company now valued at over $1 trillion ahead of its planned IPO.
SpaceX filed confidentially this week for an initial public offering, with Elon Musk reportedly aiming to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion, possibly as early as June.
The IPO Race: Timing Is Everything
SpaceX's filing has already rattled the secondary market. Anderson noted a flood of SpaceX investors coming to him seeking shares a very active buy side but supply is drying up as existing shareholders hold on, anticipating the liquidity event on the horizon.
This creates a real problem for Anthropic and OpenAI, both of which are reportedly eyeing their own public offerings. Anderson put it plainly: SpaceX is going to soak up a lot of liquidity, and there is only so much money allocated to IPOs. The first mover gets to the trough first; those who follow face both more scrutiny and, potentially, less available capital.
Conclusion
The private market race between Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX is a high-stakes game of timing, sentiment, and investor appetite. Anthropic is riding a wave of enthusiasm. OpenAI is managing a perception challenge. And SpaceX the old hand in the room may be about to change everything with a landmark public debut.
